Climate Change: Amplifying Extreme Weather and Displacement

Introduction

Climate change significantly heightens the risks of extreme weather events—such as storms, floods, wildfires, heatwaves, and droughts—making them more unpredictable, frequent, and intense. Concurrently, rising sea levels, droughts, and drastic changes in rainfall patterns due to warmer temperatures can devastate crops and kill livestock, thereby threatening livelihoods and exacerbating food insecurity. These factors can lead to massive displacement of populations, forcing communities to seek refuge and security elsewhere.

Impact on Vulnerable Communities

From Nicaragua to South Sudan, vulnerable communities worldwide are already experiencing shortages in food, potable water, land, and natural resources due to climate change. Competition over these depleted resources can spark conflict between communities or compound pre-existing vulnerabilities. While climate change does not directly cause conflict, it magnifies the impact of other factors that can lead to conflicts.

Case Studies- Nicaragua and South Sudan

In Nicaragua, changing weather patterns have led to prolonged droughts, adversely affecting agriculture and water supplies. Similarly, in South Sudan, floods and erratic rainfall patterns have disrupted livelihoods, leading to food shortages and displacement. These situations highlight how climate change exacerbates existing vulnerabilities and fuels competition for scarce resources.

Impact on Refugees and Displaced People

Many refugee communities reside in climate change hotspots—areas prone to the effects of climate change and natural disasters—compromising their security and placing them at risk of secondary displacement. For instance, in Bangladesh, UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, is assisting Rohingya refugees in mitigating the effects of monsoon storms, flooding, and landslides.

Case Study: Rohingya Refugees in Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, the Rohingya refugee camps are particularly vulnerable to monsoon storms and flooding. UNHCR's efforts to bolster infrastructure and implement disaster risk reduction measures are crucial in mitigating the impact of these natural hazards. However, the ongoing threat of extreme weather continues to pose significant challenges to the safety and well-being of the refugees.

Potential for Conflict

Climate change and natural disasters can also trigger potential conflict between refugees and host communities if there is competition over natural resources, food, water, and land rights. In the Sahel region of Western Africa, where one of the world's fastest-growing displacement crises is occurring, temperatures are rising 1.5 times faster than the global average. Changing weather patterns jeopardize agricultural activities in places where the majority of the population depends on the land, generating tensions that may lead to new displacement.

Case Study- Sahel Region

In the Sahel region, rising temperatures and changing weather patterns are undermining agricultural productivity, leading to food insecurity and displacement. The competition for dwindling resources has the potential to spark conflicts between displaced populations and host communities, further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the region.

Countries Most Affected by Climate Change

UNHCR has identified 22 countries where the effects of climate change will be most severe between now and 2030. These countries include regions heavily impacted by both conflict and climate change, such as the Eastern Horn of Africa, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Ecuador, and Honduras. Collectively, these countries host 52% of all internally displaced people, 24% of all stateless people, and 28% of all refugees.

Key Countries at Risk

- Eastern Horn of Africa- Increased droughts and changing rainfall patterns threaten food security and livelihoods.

- Afghanistan- Extreme weather events and prolonged droughts exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation.

- Bangladesh- Rising sea levels and frequent cyclones pose significant risks to densely populated coastal areas.

- Ecuador and Honduras- Both countries face increased vulnerability to extreme weather events, impacting communities and livelihoods.

Displacement as a Result of Climate Change

The impact of climate change is evident in the increasing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, such as abnormally heavy rainfall, prolonged droughts, heatwaves, and cyclones. These hazards are already causing an average of 23 million displacements of people from their homes each year, based on data from the past decade. Most of these displacements are internal, while some individuals are compelled to cross borders in search of safety and protection.

Statistical Overview

23 million displacements annually due to extreme weather events. Most displacements occur within home countries. Some displacements involve crossing international borders.

Without dramatic action to mitigate climate change and reduce the risk of climate disasters, by 2050, 200 million people will need humanitarian assistance annually due to the effects of climate change.

The Term "Climate Refugees"

The term "climate refugees" does not exist in international law. According to the 1951 Refugee Convention, a refugee is "a person who crosses international borders due to a well-grounded fear of persecution because of their race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion." Most people displaced by climate change typically move within their own countries. UNHCR does not endorse the term "climate refugee" and considers "persons displaced in the context of disasters and climate change" to be more accurate. This distinction is important for understanding the legal and humanitarian framework for addressing the needs of displaced populations.

Conclusion

Climate change is a formidable force, amplifying the severity and frequency of extreme weather events, and exacerbating vulnerabilities in communities around the world. It is imperative to address the multifaceted impacts of climate change, not only to protect the environment but also to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of millions of people at risk of displacement. Comprehensive strategies that include climate mitigation, adaptation, and robust humanitarian response are crucial in tackling the challenges posed by climate change and ensuring the safety and resilience of affected communities.